Natural resource data analysis: Finding comfort with computers

For the past six years Michigan State University Department of Forestry has offered a course, Natural Resource Data Analysis, that has evolved as computer skills, there are three principle objectives in the course: identifying a natural resource problem and obtaining relevant data; conducting an objective, quantitative analysis of data; and presenting the analysis in a way that is clear to a non-technical audience. The course consists of a combined lecture/lab where fundamental concepts oral and written communication, quantitative analysis, and spatial analysis/cartography are introduced and a hands-on lab where students practice specific computer and analytic skills. The ultimate course objective is the presentation of an analysis of a natural resource problem via World Wide Web pages, a written report and an oral, computer-assisted presentation

Linking senior forestry courses

Learning has been described as a cumulative process that allows students to build knowledge and skills as they progress through their undergraduate programs. Courses offered at the senior level usually have prerequisites, or require concurrent enrollment in other courses. In the Department of Forestry at Michigan State University, we have recently started offering two senior-level courses concurrently (rather than sequentially): Forest Management and Natural Resources Planning and Policy. In an effort to better integrate our curriculum, we are building linkages between these courses based on content (to reduce redundancy), quantitative analysis, and data sets. Forest Management is taken mostly by Professional Forestry majors, whereas Natural Resources Policy and Planning has a mixture of students from Forestry and other disciplines. Traditionally, concepts and technical skills learned in the management were used by students on interdisciplinary planning teams in planning/policy. This distribution of material created some inherent equity problems that we are addressing by offering the courses concurrently. Our experiences and the pros and cons of linking these courses are presented

Deploying initial attack resources for wildfire suppression: spatial coordination, budget constraints, and capacity constraints

We combine a scenario-based, standard-response optimization model with stochastic simulation to improve the efficiency of resource deployment for initial attack on wildland fires in three planning units in California. The optimization model minimizes the expected number of fires that do not receive a standard response-defined as the number of resources by type that must arrive at the fire within a specified time limit-subject to budget and station capacity constraints and uncertainty about the daily number and location of fires. We use the California Fire Economics Simulator to predict the number of fires not contained within initial attack modeling limits. Compared with the current deployment, the deployment obtained with optimization shifts resources from the planning unit with highest fire load to the planning unit with the highest standard response requirements but leaves simulated containment success unchanged. This result suggests that, under the current budget and capacity constraints, a range of deployments may perform equally well in terms of fire containment. Resource deployments that result from relaxing constraints on station capacity achieve greater containment success by encouraging consolidation of resources into stations with high dispatch frequency, thus increasing the probability of resource availability on high fire count days.Nous combinons un modèle d'optimisation de la réponse standard basée sur différents scénarios a` une simulation stochastique pour améliorer l'efficacité du déploiement des ressources lors de l'attaque initiale des feux de forêt dans trois unités de gestion en Californie. Le modèle d'optimisation minimise le nombre attendu de feux qui ne reçoivent pas une réponse standard (définie comme la quantité de ressources de chaque type qui doit être déployée `a l'intérieur d'une certaine limite de temps) a` cause de contraintes de budget et de capacité des stations et de l'incertitude quant au nombre quotidien de feux et `a leur localisation. Nous utilisons le simulateur de l'aspect économique des feux en Californie pour prédire le nombre de feux qui ne sont pas maîtrisés a` l'intérieur des limites déterminées par la modélisation de l'attaque initiale. Comparativement au déploie-ment actuel, le déploiement obtenu par optimisation déplace des ressources de l'unité de gestion qui a le fardeau d'intervention le plus lourd vers l'unité de gestion qui a les exigences de réponse standard les plus élevées mais laisse le succès simulé de la maîtrise des feux inchangé. Ce résultat indique que dans les conditions actuelles de contraintes de budget et de capacité, différents déploiements peuvent avoir une aussi bonne performance en termes de maîtrise du feu. Les déploiements de ressources qui résultent de la réduction des contraintes de capacité des stations ont plus de succès dans la maîtrise des feux en favorisant la consolidation des ressources dans les stations qui ont une fréquence élevée de déploiement, augmentant par conséquent la probabilité que les ressources soient disponibles les jours où le nombre de feux est élevé. [Traduit par la Rédaction]Keywords: Allocation, Forest fires, Airtankers, Wildland fire suppression, Management, California, Stochastic representation, Containment, Protection planning mode

Impact of Experience Corps® Participation on Children’s Academic Achievement and School Behavior

This article reports on the impact of the Experience Corps® (EC) Baltimore program, an intergenerational, school-based program aimed at improving academic achievement and reducing disruptive school behavior in urban, elementary school students in Kindergarten through third grade (K-3). Teams of adult volunteers aged 60 and older were placed in public schools, serving 15 h or more per week, to perform meaningful and important roles to improve the educational outcomes of children and the health and well-being of volunteers. Findings indicate no significant impact of the EC program on standardized reading or mathematical achievement test scores among children in grades 1–3 exposed to the program. K-1st grade students in EC schools had fewer principal office referrals compared to K-1st grade students in matched control schools during their second year in the EC program; second graders in EC schools had fewer suspensions and expulsions than second graders in non-EC schools during their first year in the EC program. In general, both boys and girls appeared to benefit from the EC program in school behavior. The results suggest that a volunteer engagement program for older adults can be modestly effective for improving selective aspects of classroom behavior among elementary school students in under-resourced, urban schools, but there were no significant improvements in academic achievement. More work is needed to identify individual- and school-level factors that may help account for these results

Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning, given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, or Los Angeles areas. However, at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentations to existing firefighting resources might be sufficient to compensate for change-induced changes in wildland fire outcomes

How Does the Severity of Neuroforaminal Compression in Cervical Radiculopathy Affect Outcomes of Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion

Study Design This study is a retrospective cohort study. Purpose This study aims to determine whether preoperative neuroforaminal stenosis (FS) severity is associated with motor function patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) following anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). Overview of Literature Cervical FS can significantly contribute to patient symptoms. While magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been used to classify FS, there has been limited research into the impact of FS severity on patient outcomes. Methods Patients undergoing primary, elective 1–3 level ACDF for radiculopathy at a single academic center between 2015 and 2021 were identified retrospectively. Cervical FS was evaluated using axial T2-weighted MRI images via a validated grading scale. The maximum degree of stenosis was used for multilevel disease. Motor symptoms were classified using encounters at their final preoperative and first postoperative visits, with examinations ≤3/5 indicating weakness. PROMs were obtained preoperatively and at 1-year follow-up. Bivariate analysis was used to compare outcomes based on stenosis severity, followed by multivariable analysis. Results This study included 354 patients, 157 with moderate stenosis and 197 with severe stenosis. Overall, 58 patients (16.4%) presented with upper extremity weakness ≤3/5. A similar number of patients in both groups presented with baseline motor weakness (13.5% vs. 16.55, p=0.431). Postoperatively, 97.1% and 87.0% of patients with severe and moderate FS, respectively, experienced full motor recovery (p=0.134). At 1-year, patients with severe neuroforaminal stenosis presented with significantly worse 12-item Short Form Survey Physical Component Score (PCS-12) (33.3 vs. 37.3, p=0.049) but demonstrated a greater magnitude of improvement (ΔPCS-12: 5.43 vs. 0.87, p=0.048). Worse stenosis was independently associated with greater ΔPCS-12 at 1-year (β=5.59, p=0.022). Conclusions Patients with severe FS presented with worse preoperative physical health. While ACDF improved outcomes and conferred similar motor recovery in all patients, those with severe FS reported much better improvement in physical function

Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH). Here we quantify the model-selection uncertainty for the five most numerous tree species in six counties of northwest Oregon, USA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of our study demonstrate that model-selection error may introduce 20 to 40% uncertainty into a live-tree carbon estimate, possibly making this form of error the largest source of uncertainty in estimation of live-tree carbon stores. The effect of model selection could be even greater if models are applied beyond the height and DBH ranges for which they were developed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Model-selection uncertainty is potentially large enough that it could limit the ability to track forest carbon with the precision and accuracy required by carbon accounting protocols. Without local validation based on detailed measurements of usually destructively sampled trees, it is very difficult to choose the best model when there are several available. Our analysis suggests that considering tree form in equation selection may better match trees to existing equations and that substantial gaps exist, in terms of both species and diameter ranges, that are ripe for new model-building effort.</p

Reasons for Transfer and Subsequent Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Elective Spine Surgery at an Orthopedic Specialty Hospital

Objective: To evaluate the reasons for transfer as well as the 90-day outcomes of patients who were transferred from a high-volume orthopedic specialty hospital (OSH) following elective spine surgery. Materials and Methods: All patients admitted to a single OSH for elective spine surgery from 2014 to 2021 were retrospectively identified. Ninety-day complications, readmissions, revisions, and mortality events were collected and a 3:1 propensity match was conducted. Results: Thirty-five (1.5%) of 2351 spine patients were transferred, most commonly for arrhythmia (n = 7; 20%). Thirty-three transferred patients were matched to 99 who were not transferred, and groups had similar rates of complications (18.2% vs. 10.1%; P = 0.228), readmissions (3.0% vs. 4.0%; P = 1.000), and mortality (6.1% vs. 0%; P = 0.061). Conclusion: Overall, this study demonstrates a low transfer rate following spine surgery. Risk factors should continue to be optimized in order to decrease patient risks in the postoperative period at an OSH